昨天,胡维转引了TechCrunch一篇文章,内容是德意志银行一名分析师的研究表明,苹果和黑莓,「仅仅这两家只有智能手机业务的公司,09 年他们有望获得整个手机产业 66% 的利润」。以下是这两篇文章中引用的相关图表:

首先需要说明的是,这份图表中使用的单位有错误。整个2008年,几家手机大厂的总运营利润只有不到2千万美元,这无论如何也不可能。事实上,仅诺基亚一家,2008年的运营利润就有70亿欧元之多。因此,优比客估计这份图表中的单位应为百万美元

同样的错误也出现在销售收入图表内。不过,这些小错误并不影响整个研究报告的数据可靠性,尤其当我们发现类似的现象在其他行业内也不断上演。

昨天,通用公司正式进入破产保护。这家汽车工业的庞然大物旗下拥有十余个品牌,超过150多款不同类型的汽车,多年来占据全球汽车销量第一的位置,还曾经位列财富500强之首。当通用的管理层把一家企业所能获得的荣誉一一纳入囊中之后,他们突然发现自己忘记了最根本的一点 – 企业应该是一家盈利性组织。

汽车行业中最能赚钱的公司,当属德国的保时捷。这家汽车公司,旗下只有5个品牌,销售额跟通用比起来更加不值一提。但他们能做到,制造出来的每辆汽车,都为他们带来了利润。今年5月6日,保时捷宣布结束对大众长达3年半之久的收购战,两家公司正式寻求合并,前者将成为后者最大的股东,占有51%股份。

一家公司的价值,其实并不在于它的规模,而是取决于销售利润、预期利润增长、资产密集度等几个方面。通用与保时捷两家公司,几乎在所有这些方面都处于截然相反的两级,这就解释了为什么前者会破产,而后者却能收购规模比自身大得多的大众公司。

手机行业中的诺基亚,几乎就是通用汽车的一个翻版。这家全球最大手机制造商,目前正面临着市场份额和利润双双下滑的困境,裁员的消息也不断传出。而苹果公司,则仅仅凭借一款iPhone,就拿到了智能手机市场10.8%的份额。

Marvell公司CEO Sehat Sutardja最近预测,未来3、4年之内,智能手机将至少占据50%的市场份额。诺基亚现在面临的一个问题,就是如何用Symbian手机去跟iPhone以及Android竞争,来维持其目前智能手机市场的领先地位。做不到这一点,诺基亚无疑会输掉未来。N97的发布与Ovi Store的上线能否帮助诺基亚实现战略规划,目前看并不乐观。

在北美市场,苹果和黑莓对智能手机市场的统治力毋庸置疑。他们的产品更有特色,也更有针对性。从本质上说,今天的诺基亚更像一家制造企业,长于大规模量产、弹性生产线和成本控制,而苹果和黑莓则分别像是软件公司和电子邮件服务公司。也许在10年前,制造一部手机硬件还不是一件容易的事情。但在今天,这个活基本上已经没有太多技术含量可言。随着手机产品竞争的重点逐渐向软件和服务转移,优势的天平也开始向苹果和黑莓倾斜。诺基亚在智能手机软件上曾经有过机会,可惜不争气的Symbian让他们浪费了一个时代。S60支持触摸屏功能,竟然在iPhone发布后1年多才姗姗来迟,真不知道这款5800 XpressMusic带来的,是iPhone的末日,还是Symbian的末日。

上周Ovi Store的推出,被TC的编辑认为是一场「complete disaster」。显然,在网络服务方面,诺基亚要学的也有很多。

诺基亚目前最大的问题在于开发者注意力的流失。「诺基亚拥有几百种型号的手机,支持三款不同的操作系统。没有任何两部手机拥有完全相同的工作模式」,而「为iPhone编写的程序就完全可以在所有的iPhone手机上运行」。更不用提App Store对手机软件开发者的诱惑力。

至于诺基亚现在的中国战略,则可以用一句「失恋阵线联盟」来概括。受困于TD的移动,最新推出的重量级产品Mobile Market与诺基亚Ovi Store的合作深度,绝非一般。实际上,诺基亚负责运营的Ovi专卖店将占MM业务的很大一部分,并享有优先展示的权利。在以iPhone以及App Store的双重威胁下,两家略感失意的公司,依偎在一起取暖的结果如何,值得关注。

德鲁克认为,「利润不是企业和企业活动的目的,而是企业经营的限制性因素」。简单的说,利润是一家企业继续玩下去的必要条件。虽然诺基亚目前还没有太多的燃眉之急,但对长于战略的西方企业,德意志银行发布的这两张图表,就足以让诺基亚管理层坐立难安了。


Comments

18 Comments so far

  1. luwei on June 2, 2009 10:53 pm

    Apple像一艘潜艇装有一台超级核动力引擎,运转灵活无比,这在企业界中是很罕见的。像诺基亚这种典型的庞大水面舰艇要协调很多动力装置才能缓慢转向,很多时候知道该怎么做,但是行动就是快不起来。

    我们是Ovi供应商,那个提交应用的界面比之终端用户界面更加disaster。希望芬兰民族的果决能够再次帮助诺基亚实现奇迹般的角色的转变。

  2. 胡维 on June 3, 2009 12:31 pm

    优比客老师,您好!我是胡维。

    关于图表中的数据单位,我在做这个图片的时候确实查找了半天。我也认为,单位是“百万美元”。但在没有确切数据的情况下,我仍然使用的是原图中的 【 USD,OOO’S 】 ,目前我只能确信【USD’OOO】是【千美元】。图中的单位并非【USD】.

    谢谢您的进一步分析!

  3. 优比客 on June 3, 2009 3:13 pm

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  4. Roy on June 4, 2009 12:09 am

    好,不错。中肯。诺基亚啊诺基亚

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    不能吸引开发者的平台是个失败的平台.
    目前比symbian优越的平台有iPhone OS, Android和Palm的webOS. 就连WindowsMobile也比symbian强.

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    计算机科学博士、可穿戴设备研究者、互联网创业者、商业评论人和风险投资人。曾共同创办海词,先后设立联想集团硅谷并购办公室和联想科技种子基金,负责百度在美国的开放创新业务,现管理硅谷多支科技创投基金。多次担任黑马大赛、Demo中国、教育部春晖杯、中国教育电视台《创赢未来》、硅谷SVIEF、UCAHP、MIT-CHIEF、GMIC G-Startup等创业大赛评委,同时也是科技部科技评估中心特聘专家、北京团市委青年创业导师、南京321创业人才引进计划评审委员。