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1.

在这个互联网已经如空气般不可或缺的时代,电子商务(e-commerce)作为一种独立的商业运营模式和企业类型,其界限正变得越来越模糊。2008年,美国市场销售额最大的几家网络零售商中,既有亚马逊这样的B2C网站,又有沃尔玛、塔吉特(Target)等折扣超市,还有苹果、戴尔这样的消费电子产品制造商。而在国内,网络已经成为消费者选购服饰、书籍和电子产品的重要渠道。从当当、卓越,到淘宝,再到凡客诚品、宝鸟和京东商城,越来越多的商业力量正在向互联网汇集,争夺网络用户指尖那稍纵即逝的商机。“要么电子商务,要么无商可务”,这句话在今天似乎比以往任何时候都更加接近真理。

自古以来,人类社会的商业活动都在寻求以一种更有效率的方式运行。从农业时代的集市,到工业化大生产催生出的分销,再到信息时代大行其道的直销,消费者获得商品的难度和支付的流通成本在不断降低。今天,电子商务之所以会成为零售业和制造业者的水和空气,正是人类商业活动这种长久以来的内驱力与近数十年的IT技术发展相互作用的结果。虽然电子商务这个概念兴起于上世纪末,但其涉及的内容却可上溯至上世纪70年代出现的电子数据交换(EDI),以及后来的信用卡、电话银行、企业资源计划(ERP)和数据仓库等等。1993年底,美国克林顿政府提出的“信息高速公路”计划,正式把面向终端用户的电子商务实践推上快车道。1995年,亚马逊公司成立,标志着B2C这种基于互联网平台的全新商业模式,正式登上人类商业活动的历史舞台。

亚马逊作为成立最早,也是目前规模最大的网络零售商,已经在方方面面深刻改变了美国消费者的购物习惯。以网络书店起家的亚马逊,现在销售的商品从早餐麦片到割草机一应俱全。无论居住在城市、乡村,还是人迹罕至的国家公园或山顶别墅,只要你有一个通信地址,就可以从这家网站购买到几乎所有生活必需品。在普通购物流程之外,亚马逊还推出了一种“订阅”式销售(Subscribe & Save),提供针对日用消费品的自动订购服务。使用这项服务的顾客,可以像订阅报刊杂志一样,定期收到亚马逊寄来的食品、洗漱用品和其他日常消耗品,免去了每周驱车前往超市采购的烦恼。与亚马逊相比,身为全球C2C行业领军者的eBay,则为消费者提供了一种全新的娱乐式购物体验。正如其电视广告中反复出现的关键词“购物的胜利”(Shopping Victoriously!)所揭示的那样,eBay提供的不仅仅是新旧商品交易平台,更多的是赢得竞价或是淘到新鲜玩意儿所带来的满足感。在前电子商务时代,这种体验是大多数消费者未曾经历过的。而在国内,淘宝正在将类似的价值主张发挥到极限。

2.

电子商务这个商业模式之所以成立,并能够成为大势所趋,菲利普·科特勒在《营销管理》一书中给出了很好的理论解释。书中,这位当代营销大师提出了“顾客让渡价值”这个概念,也就是顾客总价值(Total Customer Value)与顾客总成本(Total Customer Cost)之间的差额。 前者,是指顾客购买产品与服务时期望获得的利益,它包括产品价值、服务价值等等。而后者,则指顾客为购买产品所耗费的时间、精神、体力以及所支付的资金成本。通常,顾客在选购产品时,往往从价值与成本两个方面进行比较分析,从中选择出价值最高、成本最低,即“顾客让渡价值”最大的产品作为优先选购的对象。因此,企业要在竞争中战胜对手,吸引更多的潜在顾客,就必须向顾客提供比竞争对手具有更多“顾客让渡价值”的产品。而要做到这点,企业需要通过改进产品和服务,提高产品的总价值,或者降低生产与销售成本,来减少顾客购买产品时付出的时间、精力和资金耗费。

最近30年来,IT技术的发展与互联网环境的成熟,大大降低了企业在供应链、销售和物流管理上的成本。而更加具有革命性意义的地方,在于其为消费者所带来的前所未有的购物体验。在组成购物流程的所有环节上,无论是商品浏览、比价、购买决策、支付还是提货,电子商务的出现都为消费者提供了若干定位独特的顾客价值,使之区别于传统的线下购物模式。比如对那些购买意向明确的消费者,对商品进行在线浏览、比价,并根据商品评论做出购买决策,其便利程度与原先去百货店实地采购,不可同日而语。在传统购物模式仍占优势的环节,比如现场试穿和即时提货方面,电子商务企业也做出了有力的回应。刚刚被亚马逊以9亿多美元收购的全美最大网络鞋店Zappos,其客户服务方面的核心理念就是快速送货、无条件免费退换。有时,Zappos甚至会为顾客寄来两双尺码相近的鞋子,并允许他们在试穿后将不合适的那双鞋免费寄回。所有这些,都可以看作新兴电子商务企业为提供全面超过传统零售业顾客购物体验所做的努力。

尽管在增加“顾客让渡价值”方面,电子商务相较传统零售模式具有诸多先天优势。但是在可以预见的将来,电子商务并不能够完全取代传统零售业在商业活动中的地位。事实上,购物的目的,在很多情况下并非仅仅是购买若干件商品,其过程还同时满足着消费者多方面的需求。这就好像网络游戏永远不可能取代现实世界中的公园和体育场一样。然而,这并非就说明传统零售商,甚至品牌商,可以从此高枕无忧。从个体层面考虑,目前市场上任何一家占统治地位的企业,如果应对不慎,都有可能被电子商务的洪流冲垮。在企业竞争方面,电子商务不是目的,但却是一种非常有效的竞争手段。这也是为什么今天国内外诸多新老企业纷纷拥抱互联网大潮,投身电子商务领域的重要原因。

3.

在美国,沃尔玛是仅次于亚马逊的第二大网络零售商。沃尔玛的线上购物网站,其历史可以追溯至上世纪末,可以说是与亚马逊的在线购物平台接踵而至。过去几年间,Walmart.com销售额的增长速度要远远超过eBay,甚至亚马逊,这是因为在网络零售方面,沃尔玛具有一些单纯的电子商务企业所不具备的优势。比如依托其线下8百多家超市构成的庞大网络,沃尔玛提供线上付款,线下提货的“Site to Store”购物方式。这种混合式的购物体验,既让顾客享受到线上浏览比价的便利,又让他们可以自行提货,免去运费。实际上,很多同时提供线上和实体店购物的传统零售商都采用了类似的服务,比如百思买和Staples。这些零售商通常具有高度整合的网络库存管理与支付系统,有些甚至支持即时提货,比沃尔玛的“Site to Store”业务更具吸引力。

打开美国网络零售前十名的榜单,我们会惊讶的发现类似亚马逊和新蛋这样的“纯”电子商务网站竟是少数。排在网络销售额前列的,主要是沃尔玛、塔吉特(Target)、百思买、西尔斯(Sears)、Staples、Office Depot这样的线下零售巨头。造成这种现象的原因是多方面的,比如传统零售企业的实体门店,其本身就是很好的广告与公关活动的载体。实体店购物的方便性,以及消费者传统的购物习惯,都是传统零售企业所具有的相对优势。在跟随亚马逊拥抱互联网这一崭新的销售平台之后,线下零售业者的传统优势迅速彰显。尤其是像沃尔玛这样本身就是以价格优势取胜的折扣连锁超市,其借助互联网平台所发挥出的潜力是异常惊人的。去年底沃尔玛推出“Site to Store”服务后,其将近三分之一的线上销售都是通过此业务实现的。根据沃尔玛内部的数据统计,在线上购物然后到当地超市取货的顾客中,约有六成又多购买了价值至少数十美元的其他商品。在美国市场,线上与线下购物的整合,正在形成一股强有力的力量,冲击着电子商务领域曾经独领风骚的B2C类网站。

经过十几年的发展,全球网络零售市场正在传统零售巨头的积极参与下,迅速走向成熟。尽管在诸多细分市场中,我们不时能看到Zappos、新蛋这类垂直B2C网站的成功身影,但基本可以判定,至少在美国市场,将很难再出现类似亚马逊这样的新B2C巨人。至于C2C模式的代表企业eBay,过去数年内在与亚马逊和其他传统零售巨头的竞争中一直处于下风,其拍卖业务在今年第一季度陷入严重困境,营收同比缩减18%,仅有12.2亿美元。于此相对照,亚马逊今年第一季营收增长18%至48.9亿美元,继续巩固着自己网络零售市场老大的地位。值得一提的是,尽管在B2C行业中看似硕大无朋,亚马逊在传统零售巨头沃尔玛的眼中,仍然只能算是微不足道的威胁。2008年,前者的营收仅占全美零售总额的0.3%,而后者则占到7.7%。这个悬殊的差距,今后是会缩小,还是会拉大,目前尚不得而知。

4.

“他山之石,可以攻玉”。美国网络零售市场过去十年间的发展,以及市场参与者之间的相互博弈,确实有很多值得国内企业借鉴的地方。然而,中国市场又同时具有一些独一无二的特点。有时候,这些特殊之处,足以催生出世界其他地方所未见的商业奇葩。例如6年前诞生的淘宝网,首先以非常具有中国特色的价格竞底方式,将eBay在国内的嫡传 – eBay易趣击溃。然后,又借助中国世界工厂的地位,以C2C之名,行B2C之实。今天的淘宝,与美国eBay最大的区别,恐怕就在于其交易中二手商品所占的比例。前者的主要服务对象,并不是那些需要拍卖自己二手电脑的网民,而是国内诸多的中小制造企业。而这些制造商,又凭借他们与国际接轨的制造工艺,为淘宝提供了品种丰富又颇具个性化的廉价商品。这样的网络零售市场赢家,恐怕只有在中国这片土壤之上才能出现。

与美国不同,中国市场上并没有诞生过类似于沃尔玛、西尔斯这样的本土连锁零售巨头。仅仅在一些细分领域,比如家电市场,我们有几家相对较为成熟的零售企业。这样的特点,决定了新兴的电子商务企业在国内应该有更大的发展空间。事实也的确证明了这个判断。从早期的当当、卓越,到垂直领域的麦考林、红孩子、京东,到轻型品牌PPG、凡客诚品,再到传统品牌如报喜鸟,国内B2C市场在过去几年间的繁荣程度,是世界其他任何地方都望尘莫及的。可以预见,随着今年6月份大淘宝推出带来的技术壁垒消失,越来越多的传统品牌将会选择将电子商务作为一条必备的销售渠道。而当淘宝转型成为一个开放性平台之后,其庞大的客户基础和超高人气,对现有和即将诞生的垂直网络零售企业,都将是一个巨大的机会。

从更广泛的角度看,电子商务所借助的互联网,为众多传统零售商和品牌商带来的价值,决不仅局限于销售渠道。事实上,品牌营销、商品促销、乃至客户服务,都可以借助互联网平台来完成。在美国,新兴的社交网络服务提供商Facebook与微博客服务商Twitter,正在日益成为品牌商们的营销新宠。今后,任何面向普通消费者提供服务和产品的企业,都会发现维持一个网络世界中的存在是何等重要。无论是品牌自建网站,在微博客上设立帐号,还是依托淘宝这样的开放电子商务平台,未来的品牌商们必定需要一个能够与终端顾客直接互动的渠道。从某种意义上说,是否拥抱互联网,已经由不得企业自己选择。没有这张入场券,就几乎没有了在未来市场中争夺消费者的资格。

5.

回顾人类科技发展的历史,我们不难发现,那些对社会产生过,或者正在产生深远影响的技术变革,是那些早已融入我们日常生活一点一滴中的东西。比如造纸术和印刷术,我们或许已经意识不到它们的存在,却无时无刻不在使用它们来获得知识和快乐。互联网发展到今天,已经远远超出技术的范畴,并对我们的生活方式产生了不可逆转的影响。可以想象,在今后,互联网和电子商务这些概念,将会和1千多年前诞生的造纸术一样,融入到我们这个社会的血液之中。对于商业企业来说,现在已经到了需要忘掉电子商务这个框框的时候了。也许几十年后的消费者,会觉得我们今天的讨论很可笑 – 没有网络销售渠道的零售商,还能算是零售商么?

(图片来源:http://www.cbifamily.com)


Comments

67 Comments so far

  1. X. Chen on August 21, 2009 1:32 am

    好文啊!补充一点:线上零售商的价值,不止在销售而已呀。还有后续的客户产品注册,个人化服务的终身粘性,也有精彩的好戏!

    今天在美国买个家电,或名牌包包等等,制造商/零售商都会在包装盒里放个注册表,邮票都贴好了,请您寄回去注册一下您的产品,他以后给您寄广告,售后服务,反馈调查等等。今天我认识的人,几乎没人愿意填。一方面很麻烦,填个冗长的表,还要找个邮筒去寄,还要泄露我的电话,邮箱,姓名,住址,太侵犯人隐私,又看不到什么好处。

    对制造商也很昂贵!邮资,表格及收到后的资料输入,有时还得给你20元 rebate, 所费不赀,但成功率极低。

    今天凡稍有消费能力的人,几乎都非常习惯于线上的沟通方式,有互联网后,我拒绝商家的push销售,而是用pull,来决定我是否“参与”商家的销售活动,比如加入商家产品的论坛,subscribe coupons,加入商家的QQ群…您把主动权放在用户手上,他们会感谢您的。

    在我司U密应用中,一个很好的例子就是侧重在售后,如何把一个客户粘住,成为终生客户:

    产品注册:http://umikey.com/zh_reg.php
    产品客服:http://umikey.com/zh_support.php
    Demo:http://umikey.com/a/ace/

    这些都是电子商务才玩的转的把戏。

    而网络呢,刚好相反。网络强调的是接受端的价值。什么是接受端?接受端是接受者,就我,你,他。2006年的美国《时代周刊》上的年终人物评选,第一次破天荒的评选出了一个人,就叫YOU,翻译成中文就是你。为什么是你?他的目标所指其是我们每一个人。在互联网上我们不再受制于发送端的控制,我们用自已的电脑鼠标,按照我们自已的意愿来选择我们想看到,想知道的信息。在互联网上无论你怎样强调你的信息的重要,无论你花多少的钱来推广你的信息,在接受者的眼里,都不再是必要的接受条件了。所以,信息的接受完全取决于个人的需求,它的价值就体现在这里。

  2. Paul on August 21, 2009 1:36 am

    有意思,看来除了 信息流-〉金流-〉物流,

    还得加上个“回流”,回头客的流向,的确致关重要。目前制造商要吸引回头客的方法,的确太传统了!

  3. CINOS on August 21, 2009 10:11 am

    美国WALMART的网店优势在哪里?一般有实体店的企业不会将网上商品价格定的比实体店低吧?否则会冲击到实体的销售啊。但如果没有价格差,消费者为什么要从网店购买呢?哪位说下。

  4. 优比客 on August 21, 2009 10:25 am

    我简单说下。美国网络零售和实体店的价格差距,没有国内这么明显,尤其对WalMart这样的discount store来说。同样的商品,在WalMart网站和实体店中的零售价格是一样的。WalMart实体店的优势,就是其网店的优势。美国网购顾客,更多是从方便而非价格角度考量。说白了,美国没有淘宝,是因为没有其背后庞大的中小制造业群体支持。这是决定美中B2C走向不同的重要因素之一。

  5. GT5 on August 22, 2009 4:03 am

    有道理,但我认为美国市场竞争程度不及中国激烈也是一个原因。像做3C产品的京东,价格比国美、苏宁便宜10%以上,我认为美国亚马逊也能做到,毕竟省掉店面租金等固定成本和中国是一样的,但美国整个流通体系不允许亚马逊做到那么低,只要沃尔玛施压,供货商就不敢供货给亚马逊,所以亚马逊也只能保持适度高价格,不至引起大零售商的压制。中国的流通体系集中度低,价格破坏者才能找到空间生长起来。从这个角度看,也许中国电子商务更具有革命性,所谓破坏性创造,美国市场的结构决定了他破坏的速度比较慢,中国也许更快。

  6. 优比客 on August 22, 2009 8:24 am

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    计算机科学博士、可穿戴设备研究者、互联网创业者、商业评论人和风险投资人。曾共同创办海词,先后设立联想集团硅谷并购办公室和联想科技种子基金,负责百度在美国的开放创新业务,现管理硅谷多支科技创投基金。多次担任黑马大赛、Demo中国、教育部春晖杯、中国教育电视台《创赢未来》、硅谷SVIEF、UCAHP、MIT-CHIEF、GMIC G-Startup等创业大赛评委,同时也是科技部科技评估中心特聘专家、北京团市委青年创业导师、南京321创业人才引进计划评审委员。