(这是为《创业家》杂志2010年第1期撰写的一篇短文,基本上综合了国外主要技术博客和媒体对今年全球互联网趋势的预测。至于本文中没有涉及的物联网/泛在计算领域,我将在下一篇文章中重点介绍。

关于《创业家》杂志,只想说一句:我不知道还有哪本杂志比由创业家们创办的《创业家》更适合曾经的、现在的、未来的创业家们阅读了。)

随着2009年慢慢接近尾声,在各个领域,人们纷纷把目光投向明年的行业预测。2010年,全球互联网领域值得关注的两大焦点,无疑将是实时网络的迅速成长与增强现实技术的大规模商用。除此以外,进入成熟期的云计算,基于SNS的网络内容推荐,以及全新的基于位置网络服务与位置标签,也非常值得关注。

实时网络冲击传统互联网巨人

2009年10月底,微软和谷歌分别宣布将在各自的搜索引擎中整合世界最大微博客服务商Twitter的实时信息。此外,微软还同美国最大的社交网站Facebook达成了类似协议。这标志着以Twitter、Facebook为代表的实时网络构筑者,正以其自身力量,赢得互联网传统势力的尊敬。

Twitter们其实只是一个符号,它代表了人们对静态信息的不满足以及对实时信息的渴望。这种需求一旦被激发,世界将很难再走回到原来安静的状态。50年前,人们满足于每月一次的信件往来;20年前,大家觉得每周打个电话不错;10年前,是手机、短信;而5年前,是即时通讯。

今天实时网络的组成部分,不仅包括Twitter这样汇聚了数千万活跃用户的微博客服务,还有上亿部能够随时随地发布更新的智能手机,以及十余种实时搜索引擎。它们聚集在一起,迸发出惊人的协同效应。在苹果应用商店里,已经有数十款iPhone软件,可以让用户在餐馆里直接对刚刚结束的晚餐进行评论。碰到 陌生的旋律,用户可以对着手机哼上一段,后者会马上从音乐搜索引擎Midomi那里取回歌名、演唱者这些信息。

在2010年,“现在主义”(Nowism)将成为互联网新的主题。实时信息的魔力会让越来越多的网络用户上瘾,他们不仅是实时信息的消费者,同时也是制造者。用户的大规模参与,让今天实时网络的编织速度,比15年前的互联网快得多。而今年下半年谷歌推出的全新在线服务Google Wave,融合了电子邮件、即时通讯、协同办公以及富媒体共享等功能,被广泛认为将颠覆互联网用户传统的在线交流和沟通方式。

Google_Wave_inbox_chess

图1. Google Wave

越来越多的人相信,目前的互联网巨人谷歌,以及其强悍的商业模式,将会成为实时网络“创造性破坏”的牺牲者。而谷歌也认识到这一现实威胁,并希望通过新推出的Google Wave和实时搜索产品,在实时网络中分得一杯羹。新兴势力能否借助实时网络成功挑战谷歌的互联网霸主地位?也许在2010年,我们能够看出一些端倪。

增强现实技术改变世界

增强现实技术,将存在于网络的信息应用到现实世界,把真实环境和虚拟信息实时叠加到同一个画面。增强现实提供了一般情况下人类无法感知的信息,比如附近建筑物里正在进行的活动,或是当前Twitter里涉及这座建筑物的讨论。

随着GPS、罗盘和加速器逐渐成为智能手机的标配,越来越多的手机软件不仅可以探知用户当前的位置,而且能够精确掌握手机在3维空间中的姿态,以及摄像头的指向。手机定位技术的成熟,在2009年催生出各种基于手机的增强现实应用。

今年6月份上线的增强现实服务Layar,可以为用户手机捕捉到的实时画面,添加来自点评网站Yelp、维基百科、谷歌和Twitter与该画面相关的各种信息。而获得2009年德国红点设计大奖的“透视玻璃”概念产品,则把透明OLED技术与增强现实相结合,创造出一块能够现实周遭环境中所有隐藏信息的魔术玻璃。随着透明OLED成本的不断降低,可以预见类似“透视玻璃”这样的产品将会很快出现在消费市场。

1-1-2_image2

图2. “透视玻璃”概念产品

增强现实技术对世界的冲击不止局限在产品层面。2010年,广告商们将会发现各种增强现实产品所带来的巨大商业价值。当Layar和“透视玻璃”这样的产品大规模普及之后,户外、楼宇广告可以放置的空间,将不再受限于建筑物内、外部的表面积。届时,商业广告的投放空间将再一次被成倍放大,与搜索引擎竞价排名等量齐观的崭新商业模式,将会出现。

云计算、内容推荐与位置标签

随着微软Office 2010的发布,对更多人来说,云计算将不再是一个抽象概念,而成为日常生活的一部分。这款微软下一代办公套件中,新增了“存储到 SkyDrive”的 功能,可以让用户将文档存放在微软提供的25GB在线存储空间中,并在不同的电脑上访问。不仅如此,用户还能通过 SkyDrive 网站来编辑这些文件。如果说谷歌的在线办公应用Google Docs是云计算时代的启蒙者,那么微软的Office 2010,将完成云计算服务的大规模普及。

当今互联网给用户带来的最大挑战,就是“信息过载”- 网络信息正以远超人们所能消费的速度被制造出来。今天,人类社会稀缺的早已不是信息资源,而是用户注意力本身。而越来越多人意识到,同一社交网络中的朋友们,将会是最好的信息过滤器。Facebook Connect项目,以及谷歌的Google Social Search产品,都在试图从这个角度来解决信息推荐与个性化定制问题。随着实时网络的初具规模,为“信息过载”寻找解决方案的需求将愈加迫切。在2010年,这无疑是互联网领域非常值得关注的一个方向。

内置GPS智能手机的普及,让2009年成为基于位置的社交网络服务元年。其中既有Foursquare、Gowalla、Brightkite这些创业公司产品,也有 Google Latitude这样的大厂新作。被誉为“2010年的Twitter”的Foursquare,在提供朋友定位功能的同时,还推出了一款基于位置的社交小游戏,允许用户通过反复访问一个地点来积累经验值升级。这款服务上线之后,立即在美国青少年中风靡一时。

可以预见,在智能手机的帮助下,以微博、朋友动态、共享图片等为代表的UGC内容,将很快被贴上“位置标签”。位置信息,会在2010年正式成为互联网新的一维,并深刻影响用户对网络信息的使用。

(图片来源:http://petitinvention.wordpress.com)


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    计算机科学博士、可穿戴设备研究者、互联网创业者、商业评论人和风险投资人。曾共同创办海词,先后设立联想集团硅谷并购办公室和联想科技种子基金,负责百度在美国的开放创新业务,现管理硅谷多支科技创投基金。多次担任黑马大赛、Demo中国、教育部春晖杯、中国教育电视台《创赢未来》、硅谷SVIEF、UCAHP、MIT-CHIEF、GMIC G-Startup等创业大赛评委,同时也是科技部科技评估中心特聘专家、北京团市委青年创业导师、南京321创业人才引进计划评审委员。