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诺基亚眼中的手机未来
April 23, 2009 | 56 Comments
We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.
– Albert Einstein
这是诺基亚SVP（前CTO）Bob Iannucci今年2月份在HotMobile 2009所做keynote中引用的一句话，它非常准确的概括了Iannucci长达一个半小时演讲的主旨。
这篇keynote speech提出了一些新颖且有趣的概念，优比客上月的文章中略有提及。虽然不知道这是否代表诺基亚官方的看法，但还是值得对手机产业发展感兴趣的朋友推敲。
由于涉及的话题比较专业，本客不在文章中做过多讨论，仅简单评论几张比较有趣的幻灯片。对这个话题感兴趣的朋友，可以给本客发信深入讨论。由于版权的原因，演讲的原始幻灯片暂时无法与大家共享。
第3张：Principles
• Simplicity and fitness for purpose are more important than features
• The N95 & N97 crush the iPhone in capabilities, but iPhone is loved and admired
• However, the iPhone is a perpetuation of what is wrong
• Use concepts must remain constant – across phones and services
• Based upon natural human dispositions, making them future-proof
• Current user experiences present information in ways that don’t match how people organize information in their heads
• We have not been consistent – mixed metaphors in different applications
• Presentations (what we see) and input modalities will keep evolving
• Significant change will come in the next five years
• Our model needs to be able to evolve virtually infinitely
• The industry flourishes when there is a standard platform
• Many different programming metaphors and core services across models and manufacturers discourage developers
才第3张幻灯片，Iannucci就忍不住攻击了iPhone一下。这一段最重要的是“standard platform”这个提法，前面几乎都在为此做铺垫。从目前的市场占有率来看，一个通用平台显然有利于诺基亚垄断整个手机市场。在演讲的后面一部分，Iannucci从整个计算机产业演进的角度，继续为这一论点收集论据。
第4张：Start Over at the Concept Level (Humans are Relational)
• This is reflected in how we named ourselves in simpler times:
• What you do – Smith, Archer, Baker
• Where you live – Virtanen, Nieminen, da Vinci
• Who/what you are – Andersen, Arnardottir, Delgado
… We all instinctively resist becoming a “number”
Technology has helped, and hurt
• Telephones – Removed face-to-face conversations, assigned us numbers, but gave us convenience
• Email – Vanquished the handwritten letter
• ATMs – Took the personal banker out of the equation
We need to reverse the trend …
也许手机设计者们，应该从“关系”的角度重新看待手机世界。在这个世界里，每个人不应该再只是一串数字，而是关系网络中的一个节点。
第6张：What is Noun-Verb style?
• Nouns represent people, places and things
• Often called “objects”
• In the context of user interfaces, verbs are actions that can be applied to nouns
• Some are fairly specific (Call a person)
• Some are more generic (Cut/Copy/Paste apply to all objects)
• The order is important in establishing the feel of the interface
• Verb-noun order is the classic “application” UI: Send SMS, pick the recipient
• Example: verbs that operate on music only appear in the music app
• Noun-verb order is, in a strong sense, application-less: Select from a list, delete
• Selecting an object brings up a list of the things you can do (the verbs)
• Nokia’s current UIs are a mixture of verb-noun and noun-verb
• Leads to confusion and frustration
• Arguably, noun-verb is more natural because it more readily matches the way people think about the world
• Verb-noun is easier for programmers
• Even though noun-verb style is application-less, it is highly extensible
从逻辑关系上说，应该先介绍第6张幻灯片。这里，Iannucci提出了一个重要概念：“名-动”结构。目前手机的UI构成采用“动-名”结构偏多，比如“播放”、“保存”菜单等等。而Iannucci认为，“名-动”结构才更符合用户的认知习惯。而“名-动”结构有一个特性，就是application-less，这也是Iannucci认为可扩展通用手机平台成立的重要条件。
第5张：Concepts
• Consistent application of the noun-verb style
• Select an object and then perform an action
• Application-less, more human, less “computer”
• Consistent use of one common data-structure, the “Social Graph,” in all devices and for all services
• Precisely captures the noun-verb metaphor
• Forms the basis for the look-and-feel concept we seek – this is what we govern
• Extensible and future-proof
• Facilitates innovation of presentation and modalities
• Can be made open while preserving proprietary presentation styles
• A way to extend that representation across users, across phones, and into the cloud
感觉上，“名-动”结构似乎是OO思想在手机平台层面的一种演绎。Iannucci认为，建立在“名-动”结构上的社交图，是能够一统所有手机设备和服务的通用数据结构。这里一个重要理念是presentation与input modality的脱离，这是实现通用手机平台“future-proof”的重要一步。
第10张：Evolution of the Computer
这张幻灯片很重要，没有办法，一定得上图。这是诺基亚认为通用手机平台一定会出现的理论根源，也是西式思维中归纳法的标准应用。无论在大型机、小型机（服务器），还是台式机时代，产业演进均包括5个阶段。首先是群雄格局、创新迭出的黄金时代，然后是通用平台的出现。接下来，各种兼容机出现，产业价值依次向软件、服务转移。目前的手机产业进化过程，似乎也应该遵循这一规律。
Iannucci没好意思说出口的，本客来替他补充：诺基亚，而非iPhone，将成为移动计算时代的IBM、兼容机模仿的对象。现在再看iPhone的Web App战略是何等明智，颇有料敌机先的意味。通用平台也许一定会出现，但鹿死谁手现在还不得而知。
第11张：Thinking Bigger
• With more devices live-linked, the value of the SG grows according to Metcalfe’s law
• Value grows as the square of the number of users
• If opened, the global SG could become the standard mobile platform
• Extensible
• New noun types that leverage existing verbs
• New verbs that expand the usefulness of existing nouns
• New relationship types
• Service oriented
• Provides a very powerful framework for data-mining
• Why? Structured user data is much more informative than raw user data
• Service delivery can be highly tailored
• Has the potential to shield developers from some device-specific coding
• Web-aware
• Matches the evolution toward separation of data and representation and has the potential to accelerate this transformation
第15张：One Graph
• Aggregating massive data sets in real-time
• User’s interests
• Patterns in behavior and movement
• Collection of environmental sensory data
• Empowering users to reclaim their personal data
• Constructing an open marketplace where users can reveal as much of their data as they desire in exchange for benefits or compensation
• Surfacing hidden connections
一言以蔽之，手机的未来，就是一张大图。具体怎么实现？如何与云计算结合？可能诺基亚也没有想好。
这种战略级的思考，虽然不知道何时化为现实，但还是可以给我们很多启发。只有学会站在类似的高度上思考产业方向，我们才可能摆脱始终在价值链低端竞争的尴尬局面。
Comments
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