nokia-title1

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

– Albert Einstein

这是诺基亚SVP(前CTO)Bob Iannucci今年2月份在HotMobile 2009所做keynote中引用的一句话,它非常准确的概括了Iannucci长达一个半小时演讲的主旨。

这篇keynote speech提出了一些新颖且有趣的概念,优比客上月的文章中略有提及。虽然不知道这是否代表诺基亚官方的看法,但还是值得对手机产业发展感兴趣的朋友推敲。

由于涉及的话题比较专业,本客不在文章中做过多讨论,仅简单评论几张比较有趣的幻灯片。对这个话题感兴趣的朋友,可以给本客发信深入讨论。由于版权的原因,演讲的原始幻灯片暂时无法与大家共享。

第3张:Principles

• Simplicity and fitness for purpose are more important than features

    • The N95 & N97 crush the iPhone in capabilities, but iPhone is loved and admired

    • However, the iPhone is a perpetuation of what is wrong

• Use concepts must remain constant – across phones and services

    • Based upon natural human dispositions, making them future-proof

    • Current user experiences present information in ways that don’t match how people organize information in their heads

    • We have not been consistent – mixed metaphors in different applications

• Presentations (what we see) and input modalities will keep evolving

    • Significant change will come in the next five years

    • Our model needs to be able to evolve virtually infinitely

• The industry flourishes when there is a standard platform

    • Many different programming metaphors and core services across models and manufacturers discourage developers

才第3张幻灯片,Iannucci就忍不住攻击了iPhone一下。这一段最重要的是“standard platform”这个提法,前面几乎都在为此做铺垫。从目前的市场占有率来看,一个通用平台显然有利于诺基亚垄断整个手机市场。在演讲的后面一部分,Iannucci从整个计算机产业演进的角度,继续为这一论点收集论据。

第4张:Start Over at the Concept Level (Humans are Relational)

• This is reflected in how we named ourselves in simpler times:

    • What you do – Smith, Archer, Baker

    • Where you live – Virtanen, Nieminen, da Vinci

    • Who/what you are – Andersen, Arnardottir, Delgado

… We all instinctively resist becoming a “number”

Technology has helped, and hurt

• Telephones – Removed face-to-face conversations, assigned us numbers, but gave us convenience

• Email – Vanquished the handwritten letter

• ATMs – Took the personal banker out of the equation

We need to reverse the trend …

也许手机设计者们,应该从“关系”的角度重新看待手机世界。在这个世界里,每个人不应该再只是一串数字,而是关系网络中的一个节点。

第6张:What is Noun-Verb style?

• Nouns represent people, places and things

    • Often called “objects”

• In the context of user interfaces, verbs are actions that can be applied to nouns

    • Some are fairly specific (Call a person)

    • Some are more generic (Cut/Copy/Paste apply to all objects)

• The order is important in establishing the feel of the interface

    • Verb-noun order is the classic “application” UI: Send SMS, pick the recipient

        • Example: verbs that operate on music only appear in the music app

    • Noun-verb order is, in a strong sense, application-less: Select from a list, delete

        • Selecting an object brings up a list of the things you can do (the verbs)

    • Nokia’s current UIs are a mixture of verb-noun and noun-verb

        • Leads to confusion and frustration

• Arguably, noun-verb is more natural because it more readily matches the way people think about the world

    • Verb-noun is easier for programmers

• Even though noun-verb style is application-less, it is highly extensible

从逻辑关系上说,应该先介绍第6张幻灯片。这里,Iannucci提出了一个重要概念:“名-动”结构。目前手机的UI构成采用“动-名”结构偏多,比如“播放”、“保存”菜单等等。而Iannucci认为,“名-动”结构才更符合用户的认知习惯。而“名-动”结构有一个特性,就是application-less,这也是Iannucci认为可扩展通用手机平台成立的重要条件。

第5张:Concepts

• Consistent application of the noun-verb style

    • Select an object and then perform an action

    • Application-less, more human, less “computer”

• Consistent use of one common data-structure, the “Social Graph,” in all devices and for all services

    • Precisely captures the noun-verb metaphor

    • Forms the basis for the look-and-feel concept we seek – this is what we govern

    • Extensible and future-proof

    • Facilitates innovation of presentation and modalities

    • Can be made open while preserving proprietary presentation styles

• A way to extend that representation across users, across phones, and into the cloud

感觉上,“名-动”结构似乎是OO思想在手机平台层面的一种演绎。Iannucci认为,建立在“名-动”结构上的社交图,是能够一统所有手机设备和服务的通用数据结构。这里一个重要理念是presentation与input modality的脱离,这是实现通用手机平台“future-proof”的重要一步。

第10张:Evolution of the Computer

nokia-41
这张幻灯片很重要,没有办法,一定得上图。这是诺基亚认为通用手机平台一定会出现的理论根源,也是西式思维中归纳法的标准应用。无论在大型机、小型机(服务器),还是台式机时代,产业演进均包括5个阶段。首先是群雄格局、创新迭出的黄金时代,然后是通用平台的出现。接下来,各种兼容机出现,产业价值依次向软件、服务转移。目前的手机产业进化过程,似乎也应该遵循这一规律。

Iannucci没好意思说出口的,本客来替他补充:诺基亚,而非iPhone,将成为移动计算时代的IBM、兼容机模仿的对象。现在再看iPhone的Web App战略是何等明智,颇有料敌机先的意味。通用平台也许一定会出现,但鹿死谁手现在还不得而知。

第11张:Thinking Bigger

• With more devices live-linked, the value of the SG grows according to Metcalfe’s law

    • Value grows as the square of the number of users

• If opened, the global SG could become the standard mobile platform

    • Extensible

        • New noun types that leverage existing verbs

        • New verbs that expand the usefulness of existing nouns

        • New relationship types

    • Service oriented

        • Provides a very powerful framework for data-mining

            • Why? Structured user data is much more informative than raw user data

        • Service delivery can be highly tailored

        • Has the potential to shield developers from some device-specific coding

    • Web-aware

        • Matches the evolution toward separation of data and representation and has the potential to accelerate this transformation

第15张:One Graph

• Aggregating massive data sets in real-time

    • User’s interests

    • Patterns in behavior and movement

    • Collection of environmental sensory data

• Empowering users to reclaim their personal data

    • Constructing an open marketplace where users can reveal as much of their data as they desire in exchange for benefits or compensation

• Surfacing hidden connections

一言以蔽之,手机的未来,就是一张大图。具体怎么实现?如何与云计算结合?可能诺基亚也没有想好。

这种战略级的思考,虽然不知道何时化为现实,但还是可以给我们很多启发。只有学会站在类似的高度上思考产业方向,我们才可能摆脱始终在价值链低端竞争的尴尬局面。


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    计算机科学博士、可穿戴设备研究者、互联网创业者、商业评论人和风险投资人。曾共同创办海词,先后设立联想集团硅谷并购办公室和联想科技种子基金,负责百度在美国的开放创新业务,现管理硅谷多支科技创投基金。多次担任黑马大赛、Demo中国、教育部春晖杯、中国教育电视台《创赢未来》、硅谷SVIEF、UCAHP、MIT-CHIEF、GMIC G-Startup等创业大赛评委,同时也是科技部科技评估中心特聘专家、北京团市委青年创业导师、南京321创业人才引进计划评审委员。